Cotton Buying the Fact on Bearish USDA Data

Cotton -marianne-krohn-RNqZbnBnMQk-unsplash

Cotton futures are up 32 to 45 points across most contracts so far on Friday, following USDA’s report showing larger expected stocks. The outside factors are helping, with crude oil up 18 cents and the US dollar index down another 321 points. 

USDA’s balance sheet update from this morning showed old crop stocks up 200,000 bales to 3.05 million on a drop to the export number. For new crop the WAOB raised the acreage to 10.67 million planted (+1 million) and 9.67 million harvested (+540,000) acres, as yield was up just slightly to 844 lbs/acre, as production was up 1 million bales to 17 million. Stocks projected for the end of the 2024/25 crop were 1.2 million bales larger vs. last month at 5.3 million.

On the world side, the old crop carryout was trimmed by 1.66 million bales to 79.31 million. For new crop, world production was raised by 1.05 million bales, mainly via the US, with total stocks dropping 860,000 bales to 82.63 million bales.

The Seam reported online cash sales of 649 bales at an average price of 70 cents on July 11, a 75 point drop from the July 9 sale. ICE certified cotton stocks were down 397 bales on decertification on July 10 at 41,461 bales. The Cotlook A Index was back up 50 points on July 11 at 81.50 cents/lb. The USDA Average World Price (AWP) was cut by 172 points on Thursday to 56.08 cents/lb last week and is effective through next week.

Dec 24 Cotton  is at 71.32, up 45 points,

Mar 25 Cotton  is at 73.13, up 39 points,

May 25 Cotton  is at 74.49, up 32 points


On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.