Cotton futures saw strength on Friday, as most contracts were up 21 to 40 points, following USDA’s report showing larger expected stocks. The outside factors were mixed, with crude oil down 43 cents and the US dollar index down another 381 points. 

USDA’s balance sheet update from this morning showed old crop stocks up 200,000 bales to 3.05 million on a drop to the export number. For new crop the WAOB raised the acreage to 10.67 million planted (+1 million) and 9.67 million harvested (+540,000) acres, as yield was up just slightly to 844 lbs/acre. That took production up 1 million bales to 17 million. Stocks projected for the end of the 2024/25 crop were 1.2 million bales larger vs. last month at 5.3 million.

On the world side, the old crop carryout was trimmed by 1.66 million bales to 79.31 million. For new crop, world production was raised by 1.05 million bales, mainly via the US, with total stocks dropping 860,000 bales to 82.63 million bales.

Weekly Commitment of Traders data from CFTC showed spec in cotton futures and options adding another 9,577 contracts to their large net short as of July 9. By that Tuesday they were net short 40,449 contracts.

The Seam reported online cash sales of 649 bales at an average price of 70 cents on July 11, a 75 point drop from the July 9 sale. ICE certified cotton stocks were down 397 bales on decertification on July 10 at 41,461 bales. The Cotlook A Index was back up 50 points on July 11 at 81.50 cents/lb. The USDA Average World Price (AWP) was cut by 172 points on Thursday to 56.08 cents/lb last week and is effective through next week.

Dec 24 Cotton  closed at 71.27, up 40 points,

Mar 25 Cotton  closed at 73.1, up 36 points,

May 25 Cotton  closed at 74.47, up 30 points